The reason for Obama

So this year’s election continues to fascinate me. The mojo tells me that the Republicans will nominate McCain and that the Democrats will have to do a little more soul searching before their nominee emerges. Here is my (biased) hope, that across the country people experience massive Clinton fatigue and collectively (or at least, a collective majority) says “Hey, let’s move on.”

Presidential elections are about message and impressions. The “positive” message almost always beats the “negative” message, except when people are really angry or scared. Everyone says their message is positive but the phrasing is important. The fundamental difference between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is the phrasing of the change message. The unspoken Clinton message: let’s turn back to the pre-Bush prosperity. The Obama message: let’s do something totally different and move forward. Obama’s message is not only well-phrased and inspiring, it is true and he can win with it. Clinton’s is not much better than John Kerry’s tone of four years ago. “I’m not Bush, I’m smarter and better.” But if this is a change year we better make the contrast clear. Clinton, by her very name and candidacy, can only run a quasi-incumbent campaign. Obama can run hard on the outside against John McCain.

Remember, today’s head-to-head polls don’t matter. Democrats have to use their critical thinking skills a little to look forward to how those future debates and future rallies are going to look next summer and fall. How will the people who avoid the early political season — millions and millions of them — react to the respective candidacies of Obama and Clinton?

Moreover, don’t we always talk about wanting a candidate who can turn out new voters, like young people and independents? Obama is doing that everywhere he goes. Clinton’s voters will vote Democrat no matter what, but Obama’s disappear back into the margins if he loses to a conventional candidate. The contrast in message and style between Obama and McCain could be the electric moment that mobilizes an entire generation. Clinton just can’t do that. She can try, just like Kerry and Gore tried, but the odds are against her. She’s a strong candidate who would run an able campaign, but she wouldn’t move the electoral map or be able to change the game in Washington.

I’m not saying that’s fair; I’m just saying that’s how it is. Politics is not just a craft, it’s a product of the times. The times call for Barack Obama.

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