Pawlenty’s (literally) bumpy road to the vice presidency

(This post might have been timely if I had actually finished it before my crazy Friday schedule. Hell, I’ll just post it now anyway).

By now many have heard the frequent speculation over whether Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will be John McCain’s running mate now that McCain has essentially secured the Republican nomination. McCain has singled out Pawlenty as one of his favorite governors in the Republican party and Pawlenty has been one of the top McCain surrogates during primary season, criss-crossing the country on McCain’s behalf. A story in today’s Star Tribune digs into this speculation a bit, showing that once McCain makes a short list of VP candidates Pawlenty will almost certainly be in the hunt.

Democrats often joke that this might be the best way to get Pawlenty out of the state, but there is something much more serious at stake. Tim Pawlenty will not compromise on anything … anything … so long as he’s under consideration for the national ticket and hosting the Republican National Convention next fall. This means no meaningful highway improvements, unless they are bonded (which is a stupid way to build highways). It means little wiggle room on anything that isn’t a Pawlenty priority. We’ll get a bonding bill, but the once standard process of allowing the “three legs” of state government (governor, House, Senate) have something of an equal say is moot. Pawlenty will not deal in good faith because of his ability to score national points by picking a fight with an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature.

McCain’s ascension puts Pawlenty in glare of speculation
By MARK BRUNSWICK, Star Tribune
February 8, 2008

John McCain was firmly on his way to the Republican presidential nomination Thursday and Tim Pawlenty was on his way to Germany, to attend a high-powered global security conference at McCain’s invitation.

The prestige assignment from a man who now is only a step away from the presidency is fueling yet another burst of speculation that Pawlenty could be headed for a national nomination of his own — as McCain’s running mate.

But how likely is that, really? In truth, no one can say. But few observers who understand the strategy of running-mate choices dismiss Pawlenty’s chances altogether, and a list of veep contenders can hardly be found within the beltway or across the blogosphere that doesn’t include the Minnesota governor’s name somewhere in the mix.

Most observers would agree that McCain doesn’t even have a list at this point, let alone a proverbial short one. But Dan Schnur, who was communications director for McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign, said it might be wise for the McCain camp to work quickly to name a running mate.

Schnur also advised considering a governor, particularly to shore up support from conservatives who strongly backed Mitt Romney against McCain.

“There’s a lot of strategic value in McCain balancing the ticket with a conservative governor, and [Pawlenty] is one of those,” said Schnur, now a political science lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley.

Other governors frequently mentioned include Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mark
Sandford of South Carolina and Sonny Perdue of Georgia, Schnur said.

…

[Norman] Ornstein said two governors stand out as potential running mates: Pawlenty and Florida’s Charlie Crist. He suggested the announcement of a McCain running mate might be held back to create drama for the Republican National Convention in St. Paul in September.

One blockbuster possibility for McCain, [Stuart] Rothenberg said, is self-described Democratic-independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

…

Brian Sullivan, a Minnesota member of the Republican National Committee and a Romney supporter, said he sees a scenario in which Romney could become the running mate.

…

The one frequently mentioned running mate hopeful Sullivan dismisses is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won strongly in the South, but who is reviled by the party’s fiscal conservatives.

…

McCain and Pawlenty have consistently dismissed speculation about Pawlenty’s future role, saying they’ve never discussed it. Pawlenty deflected it again this week. But McCain’s campaign has sometimes quietly promoted Pawlenty as being on the short list.

Illinois Republicans were scrambling to line up replacements after Rudy Giuliani quit his presidential campaign and bailed on scheduled speeches before the primary there.
McCain campaign officials offered up Pawlenty.

“I just know the talk around the campaign was that the governor was at least in consideration,” said Illinois State Rep. Dan Brady, co-chair of the McCain campaign in Illinois. “I was told that the governor was coming in to do that per [McCain’s] request and that he’s being talked about as a possible running mate. It was campaign people and people on a higher rung of the ladder of the campaign than I am.”