Nothing knocks over a mountain in one night. But when you combine wind and water and the correct amount of time, the mountain is destined to fall. That’s how I feel about the status of my Democratic party this morning. Barack Obama was down by a million a few months ago and now he’s running even. He didn’t knock down the mountain of the Clinton organization and name recognition last night, but he showed that the future of our party is going a new direction and that change will come. I only hope we have enough time to make that change happen in 2008.
Obama won more states and may draw even in the delegate count before Tuesday’s aftermath is fully calculated. He’s got some good states for him in the next week, and then he has the monumental task of beating Clinton in Ohio, Texas or Pennsylvania in the weeks that follow. Can he do this? Yes, but not easily or without the support of new voters. He also needs to close the gender gap and swing upward 10 points among Hispanics. All difficult tasks; all doable.
I’ll let the national pundits discuss that issue, however. I am left amazed at what happened in Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range last night.
I live in Balsam Township, a tiny rural outpost northwest of Hibbing. We had a handful in 2004 show up to caucuses, 12 in 2006. Last night we had 28 ballots cast. That’s unbelievable if you know the township. But more surprising was the outcome. Obama 21, Clinton 6, Uncommitted 1.
Balsam may be small, but I think it’s a good bellwether for the unique DFL bastion on the Iron Range. Our township is a mix of labor, socially conservative economic liberals, hippie transplants and pro-gun folks. And Obama swamped it, in numbers similar to what happened across the Iron Range. The only big Range town that went for Clinton (that I know of today) was Hibbing, which was the heart of Clinton’s northern Minnesota organization. Virtually all the Edwards folks I know went to Obama.
Meantime, we took a nonbinding straw poll for the U.S. Senate race. THIS shows a much more interesting dynamic. Remember, Balsam is the “Missouri” of northern Minnesota. It’s a swing precinct that shows trends in both parties. The DFL caucus came up with this result for the Senate race: Al Franken 12, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer 10, Mike Ciresi 6, Uncommitted, 3. (The ballot totals are different because we let two guests who showed up at the wrong precinct vote in this nonbinding poll).
In other words, my earlier assertion that the Range is split three ways seems to be correct. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer will win more delegates than one would expect in northern Minnesota. AND, Mike Ciresi is not catching on here. A good ground game by Franken could neutralize the Nelson-Pallmeyer factor before the convention.
What does this mean for the rest of the state? Well, the Iron Range is the conservative edge of the DFL’s winning coalition. Obama can win here. Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer are splitting progressives, but Franken has the edge because statewide he’s in a fight with Ciresi.
This post was also published at www.mnblue.com, a state political blog with a grassroots readership.
Speak Your Mind