Old news, perhaps, but yesterday Rasmussen released numbers on the Minnesota Senate race. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken 48-45, within the margin of error and largely unchanged from the previous poll. But check out these demographic breakouts:
Moderates:
Coleman – 32%
Franken – 56%
Age 18-29:
Coleman – 35%
Franken – 65%
This year may well be decided by turnout and the presidential race. Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Obama, which will help Franken, and I imagine this is a race where moderates and young people turn out in enormous numbers. This seems like a straight-up tie to me, given the bad press Franken has had in recent weeks.
I would still consider Coleman the favorite right now. I have a feeling that the Republicans have a lot more dirt on Franken than what they’ve released so far.
While Franken has a huge lead among younger voters, these are the voters that never turn out. Kerry tried to get more young voters out in 2004 and it didn’t work very well. While Obama has done better than anybody so far at getting young voters to the primaries, he still has some work to do to keep them interested in the general election. If he can, it would certainly help Franken’s chances.
Right now, I’m guessing Coleman will win by 5-7 points, but it’s way too early to tell.