These are the seven precincts I’m watching tonight to see how Obama’s and Franken’s numbers are holding in different parts of the Iron Range (My analysis was posted yesterday). I would not be shocked or overly alarmed if there is a small bit of underperformance, especially for Franken who is in a three-way race. A huge drop in DFL support would indicate that the ugly GOP culture war strategy was successful. Even if people say they switched to McCain because of “taxes” I can guaran-damn-tee you it isn’t about taxes. My morning prediction, however, is that the Range will deliver DFL votes as usual and that any setbacks will be swallowed up by the fact that our raw numbers are lower than four years ago.
I’m not tracking turnout as a percentage of registered voters. That’s not the relevant statistic because Iron Range turnout is traditionally very high. I’ll point it out if that changes dramatically, but I don’t think it will. The number we’re interested in is total votes. Raw DFL surplus votes reported a little later than the rest of the state is what makes the Iron Range legendary in political circles.
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Keewatin (2004 Kerry vote: 80 percent of 602 votes)
8:20 a.m. — My grandpa’s voting for Obama. This is very good news.
Hibbing P10 (2004 Kerry vote: 68 percent of 1,764 votes)
8:20 a.m. — At 7:20 a.m., 75 people had already voted in this precinct. That would indicate a very enthusiastic turnout in store.
McDavitt Twsp (2004 Kerry vote: 66 percent of 284 votes)
8:20 a.m. — There’s fog on the swamp this morning. What does it mean?
Virginia P5 (2004 Kerry vote: 66 percent of 1,100 votes)
8:20 a.m. — Today’s Mesabi Daily News editorial decries the evils of early voting, implying that our founding fathers intended us to wait in longer lines. (No mention of their similar intent for the long lines to primarily include white, male property owners). I reckon it’s all a McCain paper can do these days.
11:00 a.m. — One report from Virginia described long lines outside the building before polls opened this morning.
Fayal Twsp (2004 Kerry vote: 64 percent of 1,396 votes)
8:20 a.m. — My grandma is one of the election officials here. Don’t worry, folks; she’s fair and balanced.
Grand Rapids P1 (2004 Kerry vote: 57 percent of 948 votes)
8:20 a.m. — Something witty about Grand Rapids.
Balsam Twsp (2004 Kerry vote: 47 percent of 353 votes)
8:20 a.m. — I’m off to vote here in a few minutes.
11:20 a.m. — Reporting back. I was voter #61 at 9:30ish. That’s actually a little light, but I’m not complaining because this precinct appears to be solid for McCain. It’s a guns and God kind of place, with a few pockets of Finnish Iron Range progressivism.
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I’ll update news from these precincts throughout the evening while trying to follow local legislative races, other notable precincts and statewide results. Oh, and something about the presidential race, too; not that you need it.
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