From the top to the bottom of the ticket, Democrats in Minnesota, indeed probably all over the country, face generational conflict this year. I imagine the same might be true of Republicans (but when your nominee is over 70 you might not be ready to talk about this yet). Politicos of all stripes are accustomed to conflicts based on geography and political ideology. I argue that this year the real fault lines lay along generational demography.
Today I’m beginning a three part series on this generational struggle that will cover the presidential, U.S. Senate and a key local race. Though my examples will hold special meaning to people who live in northern Minnesota, I think the general theme will hold the interest of anyone who lives in an area where the shift from the Traditionals (aged 65 or older) and Baby Boomers(45-65) to the GenXers (30-45) and Millennials(16-30) is turbulent. (And since three of these four generations are known for self-absorption, we may be close to calling this “everywhere”).
First, the presidential perspective. This generational theory can and has been applied to the primary fight between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Much of the mainstream media narrative had to do with the matter of race. That race played some role in the outcome of certain primaries is probably true, but the deeper lines could be seen in places where race was less of a factor: places like Minnesota, especially up north where I live. Obama carried Minnesota’s caucuses by massive margins, but lost several key towns up here on the Iron Range. Now, I encountered a little bit of racism in my discussions about Barack Obama on the Iron Range. That’s because a little bit of racism has dwelled here for a long time. But I wouldn’t say that there was a massive swelling of racism that rose up to give Hillary Clinton some of her few convincing precinct victories in Minnesota in the Range’s largest town of Hibbing or the DFL bastion of Chisholm. Hardly, in fact. Mostly it had to do with a generational divide that will dominate not just this election but at least the next three or four.
I decided to back Barack Obama after his speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner prior to the Iowa caucuses, and did so because he gave a speech that inspired me. I had been familiar with his background and campaign, but that was the moment – viewed on CSPAN – when I decided that he was my guy for ’08. Most of my generation didn’t watch the whole speech on CSPAN, but did pick up moments on YouTube or became interested in Obama later after his even better Iowa and New Hampshire speeches. “Yes We Can” resonated with a lot of people I know.
At the same time, “Yes We Can” landed like a wet sack of cement for a lot of people who have been around a lot longer than me. Which is why Rust Belt states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia gave us Obama fans such ulcers through the spring. Was it race? No. It was the generational divide of places where a lot of the young people left and those left behind, younger and older, felt left behind by the high talk of politician after politician.
The best example of the divide is between my grandpa and myself. My grandpa is one of the main reasons I’m a Democrat. But he has yet to fully embrace Barack Obama with the enthusiasm I have. Grandpa is a Roosevelt Democrat. Our biggest disagreement prior to this primary was when I suggested in a column, ever so gently, that FDR was not perfect. But that’s nothing compared to our talks about the Clinton/Obama battle. Clinton was the favorite of Roosevelt Democrats like my grandpa. Obama, with his multicultural background, narrative and technological fluency, represents a much more modern approach to Democratic ideals. No side is wrong; both sides are rooted in very different styles.
Now that Obama is the presumptive nominee, facing John McCain, this generational divide appears even more evident. Naturally, now many people are breaking along previously held ideological lines. I know many young people who now plan to vote McCain and old people who plan to vote Obama because of political affiliation. But the real story will be in how the generational split affects voting patterns. Obama’s campaign is betting on a new map, with higher turnout in key demographics. McCain’s is betting on the same demographic and political map, one dominated by older voters. Thus, as I’ve said before, the polling numbers you see reported are less important than the crosstabs of the polls. Who’s gonna’ vote this thing? Will key members of the traditional and baby boom generations cede the fact that America is changing, or will they put their feet down and delay the results of this change for a cycle or two longer?
The real question that will determine the outcome of this year’s presidential race is not “Is America ready for a black president?” The important question remains “Is America ready to officially move its next generation of existence, something different than before? I say yes, but I am just a dude with a blog. It’s really easy to start a blog, by the way. (But that’s another generational observation). I can’t guarantee a win for Barack Obama in this election, though he’s got one hell of a shot to win. But I can guarantee that the forces that propelled him to his very unlikely Democratic nomination will outlast those who opposed it.
Tomorrow I’ll explore how this generational divide is affecting Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race. Friday I will apply it to the House 7B race in Duluth and the general state of politics in the heavily DFL Duluth and Iron Range political structures.
I definitely saw a generational, if not racial divide, occurring at my precinct caucus. I was a precinct captain for Obama on the Iron Range. I will say that when I saw the final results for the caucuses I was pleasantly surprised. I know for a fact there was not a lot of Obama presence in Hibbing and Chisholm. However, there were several individuals throughout Virginia, Eveleth, Biwabik and Embarrass that worked hard to promote Obama and I think it paid off. We worked with the Obama campaign out of their Duluth office. It was exciting to see bottom-up grass-roots campaigning making a difference. We are all fired up to help Obama have strong showing up here in November.
There were no more than a handful of people under 50 at my precinct caucus. It still went handily for Obama. I think the generational argument is overblown.
There are three things that were new here:
1) Obama used the internet first to challenge and then to redefine conventional wisdom.
2) This was the first facebook election. With the speed of technological development, it may also be the last. What is clear is that a candidate’s ability to adapt to new technology is going to be critical.
3) Reporters report conventional wisdom. The internet has taken away party insiders’ control over that commodity. Much has been made of the media’s hostility toward Clinton. But the willingness to give full voice to that hostility was made possible by its widespread expression on the internet.
As for the future, did anyone really expect the 60’s generation to produce President Ronald Reagan? The idea of crisp generational divides is attractive, but the reality of political change in the United States is that it is gradual, rather than abrupt.
Obama is the first presidential candidate since George McGovern to rely on the full-throated support of liberals. Regardless of how much he “moves to the center”, if he wins that may be the start of a new era of progressive reform. Even your Grandpa ought to be enthusiastic about that.
My take is that people who are in an older generation (over 50), especially those who have not lived around or have had relationships with African Americans, will have a harder time voting for an African American. I guess this could be considered racism. I would tend more to consider it implicit bias (Explained in Gladwell’s book “Blink”). Many of these people over fifty will tend to use “lack of experience” as their reason for not voting for Obama. But I think it is racism or implicit bias and they don’t want to actually admit that as their reason. Many younger people come from a different era where racism was not as apparent in their culture and their implicit biases are not as strong. Hopefully this make sense. I don’t think it is just generational when people say they won’t vote for Obama. I firmly believe race is a factor on the Iron Range and people use lack of experience as their excuse.