Outcome prediction at the statehouse

I haven’t been writing much about the legislative session because the talks have been rather stagnant lately. Here are the questions to be answered next week and beyond:

Will we get a bonding bill? If yes, does the governor get the exact dollar figure he demanded or does the legislature put more projects in there daring him to veto?

How will the projected budget gap for next year be filled? Do DFLers protect the heath care dollars Gov. Pawlenty proposes to use, or does the governor’s non-negotiation negotiation lead to another victory for him? The governor has learned that cutting local government aid is a good way to lose House seats, so he’s not talking about that this time. Problem is, a vast majority of the state budget is dedicated to health care and education. To cut means to cut something popular. He’s going after health care this time. Remember, he won’t approve tax increases unless they’re property taxes or fees.

If a good sized bonding bill (for us Rangers, one that takes care of the steel mill infrastructure and the Canisteo pit) and a budget fix that preserves MinnesotaCare eligibility pass this session that’s probably as good as it will get. Negotiations on these items have approached resolution but always seem to break down near the end — according to my source in St. Paul. (Keep in mind, I blog from a place far, far away from the golden horses of the state capitol). Next week will be a good indicator week on how this might turn out.
Any guesses on what might happen?

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