The good news (if you’re an Obama supporter and/or sick of primary election news coverage): The media, at least the pieces I saw on “Good Morning America” and in the New York Times today, are finally starting to openly question how Hillary Clinton could win the Democratic nomination at this point. The likelihood that Barack Obama will win the most pledged delegates, states and popular votes is now seen as almost inevitable since no one has quite figured out how the remaining unaffiliated superdelegates would overturn those results and keep the party from imploding.
The bad news (unless you’re a McCain fan): The last month of ugliness has put both Clinton and Barack Obama 7-10 points behind John McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll. (Amazingly, despite more than a week of constant bad news, Obama is still doing better than Clinton).
Remember folks, John McCain is a very acceptable second choice to a lot of Democrats, including many Clinton and Obama supporters. (I’ve written here that if a Republican is going to be elected, I’d rather it be a guy like McCain). He carried half the Democrats in Arizona. The longer the Democratic party chooses to sit back and watch this dogfight the wider it opens John McCain’s path to victory. If Obama emerges with no more damage than he already has, he can continue to build his message and show the stark contrast between him and McCain not just on the issues but in style and symbolism. If all the traditional Democratic groups now backing Clinton are completely turned off to Obama by her attacks, then Democrats have real problems.
For once, I agree with Dick Morris. The primary is basically decided. The question is how are Democrats going to start the national campaign, with a battle cry or an exhausted sigh?
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