Grace Kelly over at MNBlue is discussing the possibility of former moderate Republican Gov. Arne Carlson jumping into Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race either as an independent or as a DFLer. What a world! What a world! The theory is based on some push polling that was done that included Arne’s name as a DFL candidate. We don’t know if his name was used because of legitimate buzz about a campaign or if it was used as a “baseline” because of his large, but dispassionate, popularity in the state.

It’s hard to see any scenario where Coleman gets less than 35-40 percent of the vote, which is roughly equal to Al Franken’s base as well. The reason Coleman has the advantage is his lead among moderate GOPers and right-leaning independents who crossed over for Amy Klobuchar and might cross over for Barack Obama, but who have yet to warm to Franken. It’s hard to say whether Carlson would help or hurt Franken’s cause or eat into the GOP base. And Jesse Ventura is still mulling a run, too, which would probably hurt Franken more than Coleman.

I still like Al Franken, but his road to the Senate will be very unlike that of traditional Democratic challengers this cycle.