Who will win? Who will vote?

I’m easing myself into the practice of reducing the amount of political polling I report here. Other blogs report it at great length and have faster access to the original polling data than me. Also, I think that polling should be reported as intended by pollsters: as a simple snapshot of one moment in time that only becomes a trend when repeated multiple times. Reporting the up and down backlash as signs of trends only angries up the blood.

It will take me a while to ease out of poll blogging. For instance, two national polls out this weekend show a very close race between John McCain and Barack Obama, essentially tied. In the case of the Newsweek poll, Obama’s 15-point lead has turned into a 3-point lead.

Why? It isn’t because Obama is 12 percentage points less popular, it has to do with the sampling ratios and the crystallization of undecided conservatives for McCain. (The old poll had McCain getting 37 percent … that’s just silly). But Monday morning, it will be reported as “trouble for Obama” and an “upswing” for McCain. The truth? McCain is consolidating conservative independents and Republicans and continues to benefit from hesitancy of some to embrace the relatively unknown Obama. Also, the poll now has a balance of Republicans and Democrats. While that is super-duper fair, it doesn’t reflect the fact that Democrats are surging ahead in voter registration across the country and most factors show them more motivated to vote. Furthermore, good state polls are better than good national polls because of much higher sample sizes. Electoral Vote does a great roundup of state polls.

So the question isn’t “who’s ahead in the polls?” The question should be “who’s going to vote?” For once in our fat American lives, let’s put the responsibility for the outcome of a major moment in history on ourselves.

Where are we really? I am starting to agree with pundits who put this election in the same category as the summer of 1980. People then wanted Carter out but weren’t sure about this right wing actor guy named Reagan. Reagan came across very well in debates and a convincing majority of Americans went with him in the fall. So it’s up to Obama to convince change-hungry Americans in the debates and fall campaign that he’s ready to take this country forward. It’s up to us to pay attention and vote accordingly.

Simple, really.

Comments

  1. Anonymous says

    As you point out Polls are only valid for describing that moment in time when they were in the field and their shelf life is limited by the next news cycle that reveals some pertinent information about either of the Candidates.Obama has the most at risk because he is least well known and therefore each revelation about him will divide people into supporters or opponents. McCain is well known and people have opinions about him formed over a longer time. I think there is one other factor at play, some are looking for rationalizations to vote against Obama, that is they search to justify their bigotry. Sad but true.

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