Barkely a factor, or maybe not, but probably for sure

It’s been a mixed day for Independence Party Senate candidate Dean Barkley. The Wall Street Journal profiled him and his potential impact on the race this morning, but this afternoon a Rasmussen Poll in Minnesota puts him down around 3 percent support (with a statistical tie up top between Norm Coleman and Al Franken).

I think Barkley is a lot more credible as a candidate than people give him credit. He’s actually served in the Senate (albeit briefly as an appointed replacement to Sen. Paul Wellstone) and is seems to have a handle on the issues. Moreover, he seems to draw evenly from Democrats and Republicans. With a solid performance in the debates he may find himself back in the teens or even 20s in support. After that, who knows?

I think there is no way Barkley does any worse that IPer Peter Hutchinson in the 2006 governor’s race (7 percent). That means the winner of this seat will probably muster just 45 or 46 percent of the vote, maybe even less. I can see a way Norm gets 45 and I can see a way Al gets 45. A Barkley win is a long shot, but I wouldn’t rule it out until after we see the debates. This one will be very, very close.

Comments

  1. This poll is nuts. Last week Barkley drops 10 points and Franken and Coleman go up 5 points each.

    Talk to your neighbors and see if they are happy with the 2 major party candidates. Barkley is good for 20% at least. He’ll be in all 5debates.

    77% of the State would vote independent if offered a good choice and Barkley is that if he can raise some money.

  2. This one could be something to watch. Given the other candidates, I doubt Barkley has a chance, but he could be more than a footnote when the results are counted.

    I’ve never figured out why the third parties seem so excited about the presidential race and the gubernatorial (sp?) races. In virtually all the top of the ballot races they are at best a spoiler (we’ll ignore the Jessie factor here for a minute).

    Instead, it would seem like a more sane strategy to pick off Congressional and Senate seats, or state house and senate seats, especially when the bodies are near evenly divided.

    Look at the impact Barkley had when he served out Wellstone’s term, in a closely divided senate, he received attention for his politics, not just for his novelty as “Jessie’s appointee”. Also note the impact Lieberman has had in recent years. Granted, this is a liberal blog, so that may not be the best example to use here, but the point is that the Senate was a much different animal with a wildcard in the mix.

  3. I’d agree that Barkley will get more support than 3%, but I doubt he’ll have any effect on who the ultimate winner of the race is one way or the other. As far as which party he’ll draw from, I agree that it will be about even. Maybe slightly more from Franken since Al has a lower approval rating among Dems than Coleman does among Repubs, but it won’t be by very much.

    Totally unrelated to the Minnesota Senate Race, I see another native Iron Ranger has come out in favor of a presidential candidate. Grand Rapids native and current Gopher Hockey coach Don Lucia has endorsed the McCain/Palin ticket.

    http://wcco.com/politics/gophers.coach.mccain.2.821788.html

  4. Don who?

    The Gophers?

    McCain?

    Is this like when Mike Tice endorsed George W. Bush in 2004. Because that totally turned the tide. 🙂

    Meantime, thanks for all the comments, everyone. The Barkley campaign is decrying the Ras. poll as an outlier, but only time and debates will tell.

  5. Dean Barkley is just getting started and I bet he has spent less then $50,000.00 vs $50 MILLION the other two are spending.

    He is qualified, a native MN who has stayed home and worked jobs both high & low in status.

    He will stay out of your bedroom and limit Washington’s reach into your wallet.

    You might not agree with everything he says but he will tell you what he thinks not what he thinks you want to hear.

    additional blog commentary at http://www.independenceminnesota.org

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