Last call: 7B DFL primary goes to the wire

Today I’m going to make my predictions for the outcome of Tuesday’s DFL primary in 7B. I do this for fun and to stir the pot. Obviously, the voters of 7B will control the results. This is a hard climate in which to make a prediction because I’d bet that half of the eligible voters in Duluth aren’t even aware of this primary, which means that the last minute media surge by candidates may have the ability to rapidly shift the dynamic. The winner will be the person who drives turnout for their people and/or depresses turnout for the other guys’ people.

For those just joining us, we have an active DFL primary in 7B after the surprise retirement of Rep. Mike Jaros (DFL-Duluth). It’s a heavily DFL district, so the winner of this primary will go on to face Republican Allan Kehr and IP candidate Jay Cole in very favorable conditions. One interesting observations about this race is it’s “snooze factor.” This is a very important primary. This part of Duluth hasn’t seen an open seat in the legislature in a generation and with its strong DFL index it’s reasonable to assume that this primary is for all the marbles. Yet there has been only minimal coverage in the media and the chattering class has remained focuses on state and national races. This might have been different had the vacancy not occurred so late in the season, allowing people to rally their troops for the county unit convention.

First, a disclaimer. I am not a Duluthian and my opinions are based largely on my limited contact with candidates, activists and voters and, of course, the way I see things playing out in the media. I did, however, almost exactly guess the outcome of Duluth’s mayoral election last year within a professional pollsters margin of error. I’m going to call that “expertise,” even if it was mostly just luck. That’s more than TV people would need to call me an expert. Which is why you should treat the TV news like you would treat someone who declares themselves an expert … skeptically.

First, you have probably seen that I’ve been running a series of posts profiling the five candidates appearing on the ballot. If you missed any of them, here are the links:

Brandon Clokey
Community activist who announced campaign back in January before Jaros had announced retirement.

John Derbis
UMD student who dropped out of the race Thursday and endorsed Marsh Stenersen.

Dr. Dan Maryland

Duluth eye doctor who is running a health care focused campaign.

Roger Reinert

Duluth City Councilor and Council President.

Marsh Stenersen

Longtime DFL and union organizer.

The dynamic I see

Reinert has been very aggressive with press releases and issue statements. He has done well with labor endorsements, given Stenersen’s strength there, and comes across as polished after a two terms in the city council. He also held a press conference to announce his first three bills to be introduced in the legislature, which was a refreshing amount of specificity for a legislative race. I was striken by an early e-mail exchange I had with Reinert. I told him, in passing, that my family was planning a rare trip down from the rural corners of the Iron Range to Duluth to see the zoo. In his reply, he suggested a litany of family-friendly things to do near the zoo. Now, he was trying to impress me, but that kind of enthusiasm for your city is good to see from a legislator. A lot of northern Minnesota DFLers lack that fire.

Reinert was the first big name I heard entering this race, but quickly thereafter Marsh Stenersen jumped in the race with a lot of fortitude. Though I was not familiar with his career in political and labor organization I was impressed with his “people not politics” message and know, first hand, that such a philosophy can be very effective in practice. Stenersen and his campaign talked a lot about avoiding “opportunistic” politicians and electing people dedicated to the issues. The implication was that Reinert was such a politician. Stenersen also has enjoyed the open and enthusiastic support of Jaros, which has helped him (though endorsements are only a small part of the mix).

All this sets the dynamic as I see it today: Reinert ahead, Stenersen tracking close behind. Clokey, Maryland and Derbis deserve credit for bringing great ideas to the election, but have not demonstrated the organization needed to win a legislative race like this one. I hope they remain involved and try again in the future.

So, the prediction?’

When this all started I saw Reinert winning by 12. Stenersen has closed that gap. I predict Reinert wins this by single digits, but a Stenersen surprise is quite possible if turnout is highest among perennial DFL voting blocs in West Duluth. Reinert, 46 percent; Stenersen, 44 percent; Clokey, 5 percent; Maryland, 4 percent; Derbis 1 percent. Reinert wins the general in a landslide (or Stenersen; either way it’s a landslide).

Again, this is just for fun and certainly not based on any scientific evidence. You are as qualified to guess as me, so by all means offer your predictions in the comments.

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Comments

Todd says

September 9, 2008 at 9:05 am

7B is the district I grew up in. I agree with you that Reinert wins, but I’ll say by a slightly bigger margin. I’ll say Reinert by 5 percentage points.

Tom says

September 9, 2008 at 11:40 am

I’ll guess a slightly larger win for Reinert as well.

How about this:
Reinert 49
Stenersen 41
Clokey 6
Maryland 3
Derbis 1