By now you’ve probably heard the speculation that U.S. Rep Jim Oberstar is on President-elect Obama’s short list for Secretary of Transportation. The Mesabi Daily News welcomed the idea in a Monday editorial. This speculation has been around a long time. I wrote about a collection of potential succession candidates should Oberstar move over to the executive branch back in June. I’d imagine some of these people, and probably others I haven’t thought of yet, are getting Google alerts on “Oberstar” and “Secretary of Transportation.”
Here’s what we know. Oberstar says he’s not interested in SecTrans. In fact, he’d probably be taking a demotion in terms of ability to influence transportation funding and policy to take that job. (Oberstar REALLY wants passenger rail between Duluth and the Twin Cities). Furthermore, there’s no evidence that President-elect Obama is planning to fill out his cabinet with long-serving members of Congress. He may want to go an entirely different direction. Finally, at this stage in his career, Oberstar isn’t going to be seeking a job like this with the possibility of being turned down. That’s why I put the chances of an Oberstar appointment down in the single digits, maybe the 20s, in terms of percentage.
However … it is possible. If Obama asks Oberstar to to run his Transportation Department I couldn’t imagine Oberstar saying no, especially if he has assurances for his pet projects and home district. Oberstar has been in Congress a long time and this will be his only chance to serve in any capacity other than U.S. Representative from Minnesota’s 8th District.
IF (a huge if) this happens you would see a monumental struggle for the soul of Minnesota’s Eighth District in a special election. Liberals and moderates would struggle for the DFL nomination, as would the Iron Range and Duluth and southern exurbs. Geography, ideology, gender, age — we’d have it all out, baby, and it could get ugly and highly entertaining. And that’s just the DFL. (Check out my previous analysis on potential DFL candidates).
The GOP would have a similar soul-searching moment to determine how to be competitive in a seat they haven’t had a real chance at since before there was fire. With far fewer GOP office holders in the district, they’d have to perform a miraculous feat of organization or, cheaper and more likely, recruit a star candidate. Rod Grams? Kevin McHale? Kent Hrbek? (Oh, it would hurt me so much if Kent Hrbek ran as a GOP in my district, you have no idea). I only mention McHale because he had a high-profile role in a recent John McCain rally. If he really is a Republican (I’m not sure on that; and he may be uninterested) he’d hold appeal up on the Iron Range where he’s from and visits often. Actually, what the heck, let me just throw this out there that Kevin McHale would be the GOP’s best and perhaps only chance to win this seat. There, that’ll get me some buzz. And yes, I know the Timberwolves are terrible. So is the GOP’s 8th District operation.
The stakes are even higher when you consider the 2012 redistricting. It’s quite possible that Minnesota will lose a Congressional seat after the next census and conventional wisdom seems to imply that it’s the Sixth District (northern suburbs and St. Cloud area) that would be cannibalized if that happens. This means that Jim Oberstar could theoretically just keep doing what he’s doing for a very long time. If that’s true, his future successor may not yet be potty trained. However, another more GOP-friendly scenario would be to cut the state in half on a east-to-west line. That’s the GOP dream scenario leaving just one seat to be shared by Northwestern and Northeastern Minnesota. And if you want a crazy election, that’s a good ‘un.
The winner in all this is the candidate who is ready to go, regardless of party, ideology or geography. But one scenario has this all happening in, oh, about two weeks. So … you know … something to think about up north.
Kent Hrbek is far too big of a drunkard to be in politics. The guy shows up to every Twins game completely sloshed. My friend, who has idolized Hrbek his entire life, asked him for an autograph at a game and Hrbek apparently acted like a jerk.
Didn’t your mother ever tell you “if you don’t have anything nice to say…”
As for 2012 re-districting, wouldn’t it make more sense to group the core metro area as one instead of separate Mpls from St. Paul?
As a rural guy, I could see the logic in that, but it’s completely unworkable politically. Minneapolis and St. Paul are the state’s largest two cities and have always had their own districts. Plus, that would be a dealbreaker for any DFL support for a redistricting bill. I can’t guarantee DFL control of the legislature and governor’s office in 2012, but I seriously doubt the GOP will sweep House, Senate and Gov. The most realistic DFL leaning plan is the one I describe. The most realistic GOP-leaning plan would be the big northern swing district.
True, the DFL wouldn’t do the logical and right thing. Sounds like the party is doing what is best for the party and not the logical thing and what the people want.
The suburbs really lose out, not much of a voice when the big city elects a big city politician.
Folks in the suburbs are a lot more alike with rural than big city. Heck, the new sub-division on the north side of Virginia is not any different than the second ring and outer ring suburbs.
The way I’ve always understood it, a congressional district has to have about 600,000 people in it. It would make sense to combine the cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul into one district since they have about that many people combined and they have more and more similar interests each and every year. While Minneapolis and Saint Paul have been rivals traditionally, that has become less and less the case over the past three decades. While I agree that it won’t happen for political reasons, I think it’s almost laughable to say that the interests of the people of Saint Paul are more in line with those in sections of Woodbury and Eagan than they do with Minneapolis. I agree that the two cities will still each have congressional districts with a few suburbs thrown into each so they have enough people. Past that it’s anybody’s guess how it will work out with the suburban and rural areas.
While Minnesota will likely lose one congressional seat, Michigan could easily lose two or three. Having spent the better part of the last three years living in Texas, there has to be hundreds of thousands of people from Michigan down here and almost as many from Ohio and Pennsylvania. The economies of those states, especially Michigan, are beyond horrid and won’t be improving anytime soon.
Spot on, Todd gets it!
I wish there was a way to convince the DFL to accept the fact that mpls and st. paul should be one congressional district.
As for those states with horrid economies, Todd, they will see a drastic change come 20-JAN-2009. Change and hope is on its way, Obama’s gonna change the world!!!!!
We won’t have to worry any more!!!