As I’ve said, the Iron Range held for Obama with only slightly reduced margins. The strange nature of the Senate race put Franken’s totals far behind Obama’s. On the Range, however, I’d attribute almost every Barkley vote as a lost Franken vote. Those were by-and-large disaffected Democrats. Coleman held the GOP index (which isn’t much around here).
I was watching seven precincts for an indication of how things were going in different corners of the Iron Range region. In these precincts, the total number of votes was about the same, but often slightly smaller. In Hibbing P10, 200 fewer voters weighed in this year, which says some bad things about our upcoming census. These are all rounded.
Keewatin: Obama 77, McCain 20 (Obama -3 from Kerry’s percentage)
Hibbing P10: Obama 66, McCain 32 (Obama -2 from Kerry’s percentage)
McDavitt Township: Obama 64, McCain 32 (Obama -2 from Kerry’s percentage)
Virginia P5: Obama 64, McCain 34.2 (Obama -2 from Kerry’s percentage)
Fayal Township: Obama 62, McCain 36 (Obama -2 from Kerry’s percentage)
Grand Rapids P1: Obama 56, McCain 42 (Obama -1 from Kerry’s percentage)
Balsam Township: Obama 52, McCain 46 (OBAMA PLUS FIVE!)
Yes, Balsam flipped from red to blue AND matched the national popular vote. Balsam is the new Ohio.
And yes, you could say that this looks bad because 2008 seems so big in comparison with 2004 but our numbers were just slightly lower for the DFL standard-bearer. Not so for me. If you were in the gas stations and bars of the Iron Range and heard some of the vile, racist things that were being said by a vocal few, you would have been worried about much worse. In truth, the vast majority of Iron Range DFLers proved that the issues are more important than the color of a person’s skin … which is why this election is so important for us all. I don’t intent to imply that all non-Obama voters are racist. Hardly. I just mean that race was much less of an overall factor than anyone was predicting a few weeks ago, certain a few months ago. The divide and conquer strategy might work for Republicans in western Pennsylvania, but not here.
Furthermore, I find that younger people on the Iron Range are actually more Republican than older people (not a majority; just some movement on the scale). So as time goes by, you may see these Range numbers soften a bit … but the core DFL economic values should remain supreme.
Aaron…
Thanks for letting someone who grew up in the area (Lawrence Lake) know about last night’s vote. Much appreciated.
I suppose I can check this out myself but I am interested in the Eveleth precinct results for 2008 vs. 2004. They all reported in at around 70% for Obama. Seems impressive. Any idea about 2004 Kerry results?
You’re lucky I had the page open at the SOS site. P11 was about a four point drop from Kerry’s numbers — 67+ down to 63+
P10 didn’t drop that much. Maybe I should have been looking at 11. 🙂
Do you think it was race? Was turnout higher or about the same?
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/the-mccain-belt.html
Check out this map. I guarantee the average 2% decline in various precincts around here is what you would call the Appalachia of MN response (racists on the range). Which would seem about right (not based on hard evidence but on anecdotal evidence of various experiences I’ve had). Anyway, just a theory.
At least the county overall didn’t decline.
Despite the media’s fixation, this election was not about race. It was an election about age, experience and change. And the Range is old and getting older, doesn’t really like change and is all over McCain’s experience as a veteran. Obviously there are some loudmouth racists around, but most of them didn’t vote for Kerry either.
I think it’s a little of both. The fact that the margins of DFL victory were only slightly lower keeps open the possibility of many different factors, including race, age, and general population decline, being at fault. I stand by my original way of phrasing this outcome: the vast majority of Iron Range Democrats put the economy and issues ahead of race, regardless of their personal feelings about race (which I still can’t quantify).
What’s interesting is that while Obama’s vote percentages were below Kerry’s, McCain’s weren’t dramatically better than Bush’s. I real think this is a matter of statistical noise caused by a small number of nervous anti-Obamaites. I still feel pretty damn good about how this place went for the presidential race. Now, I’d love to know why one out of four DFLers up here jumped over to Barkley instead of Franken, but that’s another matter entirely and one that applies to the whole state.
I agree with Aaron.
the vast majority of Iron Range Democrats put the economy and issues ahead of race
I disagree. You might as well say they put the economy and issues ahead of the cost of Obama’s suits. For the overwhelming majority of Range Democrats race was a non-issue. After all, they voted for Obama. But it was a non-issue for the overwhelming majority of people who voted for McCain as well.
The reality is that by October, the campaign was waged as a traditional battle between a Democrat and a Republican with competing policies. Obama’s race was irrelevant.
Maybe I’m just letting my conversations with my grandpa color my analysis toward the race talk. But it was a big deal for some Iron Range DFLers, and most of the people I know who were going through that internal struggle stuck with their core principles.
Political principles, that is.
“I just mean that race was much less of an overall factor than anyone was predicting a few weeks ago, certain a few months ago.” This is music to my ears, we’re on the right track anyway. I hope someday soon, race is not a factor . . . at all.
–AnnMarie
The people that may have voted based on race were the people running around defacing Obama signs. There was a lot of it going on and the root of it was based in hatred. Those same people may normally not vote in great numbers (some historically may have voted Republican) but they may have shown up to cast their vote against Obama. It seems to be a small number but I do believe it is there and it doesn’t surprise me. Not every single person on the Iron Range votes based on reason or logic. A few, inevitably cast there ballot in fear and/or hate. There are other areas in our country where this happened, only in larger numbers.
I don’t think anyone was suggesting there are no racists on the range. I suspect folks defacing signs were mostly kids. No doubt reflecting their parents attitudes.
Here is a link to a NYTY story on the Bradley effect:
New York Times
“Mr. Obama lost white voters by 12 points, but that is the same margin Al Gore lost them by in 2000 and better than the 17-point margin John Kerry lost them by in 2004.”
My comments on this post are specifically referring to the Iron Range and the racist attitudes that exist here. They attitude of our country, as a whole, does not reflect this racism. I don’t believe racism on the Range is widespread or pervasive and I don’t believe it is of the Bradley- Effect type. It is blatently obvious racism among a very small minority of people who are fearful of outsiders. I believe the people who reflect this racism have never ventured very far from the Iron Range. This is a small number of people who are skeptics or fearful of anything “foreign”. Expanding their horizons could alleviate some of the attitude but they either don’t want to expand their horizons or they don’t have the resources to do so. Like I said, the vast majority of our country has gotten beyond hateful racist attitudes but their are pockets of this racism everywhere and we’ve got some on the Range.
Obama’s gonna change the world!!!