I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that I obviously got my final prediction in MN-08 wrong. I had 53-47 Oberstar. However, I was probably the only DFLer predicting a close race, and reviewing the numbers what I see is a remarkable performance by Chip Cravaack throughout the district. He won by crushing margins down south and by holding down Oberstar’s margins in Range strongholds.
In precinct after precinct you see evidence that a measurable number of Range voters went into the booth, voted Cravaack and then DFL on state and local races. That’s not so much a wave as it is a good candidate. DFLers lost support along the margins of most races up here, but not nearly so much as Oberstar lost against Cravaack.
The Roosevelt DFLers are fading up north, just as they have in WI-7 and MI-1. What’s left is two or three smaller generations of frustrated people, hungry for growth and/or to be left the hell alone. The fact that the two desires are contradictory is a problem for another day. It’s a special challenge — one that belongs to all of us, of all party persuasions.
This whole pendulum swinging in national politics is getting sickening. It always swings back and forth with both parties blaming the other, when the root cause is a failure of government in general. Bush’s policies were obviously a major impetus for the giant job sucking black hole we are in, but a short two years after electing Obama the blame has been reassigned to the Democrats. What short memories and and blind eyes have the majority of Americans.
It amazes me that the masses of sheeple swing so quickly reassigning blame in two year cycles. Yet all the while the puppeteers sit in the shadows running the show no matter who is in power on the national level. I am starting to become a cynic. I am starting to think that it is almost an act of conformance and stupidity to vote in national elections…
I do however still feel that as a state we can accomplish some great things, and that voting in local/state elections is definitely worthwhile.
I foresee four tough years of gridlock at the state level if Dayton wins, which I sure as hell hope he does. After eight years of Pawlenty systematically destroying our great state I can’t imagine having Emmer in power with a Republican legislature. The thought actually gives me the chills..
How dya like them apples??
So, Aaron, your two first gubernatorial interviews are the new DFL legislative leaders, and Tony Sertich seems like the obvious next choice for Oberstar’s seat. (Although I guess I shouldn’t call it “Oberstar’s seat” anymore. That’ll take some getting used to.)
I am going to try to do some interviews here before year’s end: Cravaack if I can get him, Bakk and Thissen would be good, too. I’m going to hold for a few weeks, if not months, for the analysis of the DFL 2012 candidate. Much will depend on what happens when Dayton forms his admin.
I’ve crunched some numbers and it confirms your impression. Oberstar lost the election on the Range and in rural St. Louis County. If you exclude Duluth (where Oberstar’s winning margin was 26%), he carried the rest of the county by just 12%. In 2006 the figure was 50%.
Another way of looking at it is that if you exclude Duluth (where Oberstar ran just a little behind Dayton), he got 3500 fewer votes in the rest of the county than Dayton. Had Oberstar gotten those votes, he would have won.
We need to make sure that whoever challenges Cravaack in two years is someone that can reconnect with the traditional NE Minnesota DFL base while also being competitive district-wide.
Cronyistic as he is, wouldn’t a firebrand like Rukavina do well in the district? Or does the Range infighting from the Marvin windows fiasco still destroy his credibility outside hishome turf?
As much of an insider and blatant cronyist as he is, I still can’t help but admire the man with the way he has of public speaking.