MN-8 analysis pours in; more to come as Tuesday approaches

I’ll have my own analysis of the MN-8 DFL primary tomorrow, but to hold you over there have been some great write-ups around the state so far.

Mark Zdechlik at Minnesota Public Radio put together a comprehensive review. I’d recommend reading or listening to that. I was honored to be a part of that story, though my sound bite is really most valuable as a Scrabble play than it is for fresh insight. MPR’s Colin Campbell also has a story about the horse race, including a look ahead to the general election.

Tony Petrangelo at LeftMN offers up a quick numbers review. I see the race very similarly.

Nolan seems to have the edge, but that’s only because both Clark and Anderson’s paths to victory involve the other two candidates splitting the vote enough for 38%-35% to be enough.

Joel at the Minnesota Progressive Project provides a miniature history of the race while also concisely explaining some of the race dynamics. I agree with his conclusion:

Conventional wisdom is that Nolan is poised for victory, but with no polling data publicly released it is hard to know the true state of the race. The key place to watch on election night is St. Louis County.  If Nolan is either close to or ahead of Anderson in Duluth and the Range, it is all over.  If Anderson can win St. Louis County big, then perhaps Clark sneaks through.   If Anderson wins St. Louis County in a landslide, then perhaps he can pull off the miracle upset of our times.

I will explain more about my “what to watch” tomorrow. I would add that there is a way for St. Louis County to be neutralized but that this might benefit Nolan as much or more than Clark. The million dollar (Well, about $750,000) question is whether for all her spending Clark brings some votes to the polls on Tuesday.

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