Nolan barely out-raising challenger in MN-8

politics_mn.jpgFrom Brian Bakst, Minnesota AP correspondent:

In other words, U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN-8) is running roughly even with his Republican challenger Stewart Mills in fundraising for the 2014 election.

Nolan, an outspoken critic of Congressional campaign fundraising, is also not particularly good at fundraising (noble position aside). While Nolan remains slightly favored for the upcoming election, Mills ability to keep pace with the incumbent — especially knowing that outside money will come in force — shows that this district remains competitive and will remain as such for the foreseeable future.

That said, MN-8 is also becoming more sensitive to national trends (John Blatnik and Jim Oberstar had it walled off for half a century in a very localized way). In years like 2010, Republicans will have a big opportunity here. But in a Democratic wave, the GOP will struggle. Thus, in a normal year, this could be close.

If there is 2014 voter anger over the shutdown, and its aimed disproportionately at Republicans (which polls show now), Nolan will prevail easily.

UPDATE: Some clarification on my part, Bakst’s tweet refers to total fundraising this year. Mills out-raised Nolan in this past quarter, $243,000 to $129,000. Still, Nolan holds the slight financial edge on the year as described above.

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