Canadian Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is leading in the polls heading into today’s Canadian federal election.
UPDATE: Justin Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority government in Monday’s election. It was an unexpected rout.
I’ve long foreseen a world in which heads of state — including one day a U.S. President — might be named “Justin.” Lots of kids are named Justin now. And once the Justins take over, then come the Dylans, Hunters, Lindseys and Mackenzies.
The moment is neigh.
Today, Canadians will vote to elect a new parliament and, quite likely, a new prime minister. I’ve always taken special interest in Canada’s politics, partly because I can see Canada from my U.S. congressional district and because it is, bar none, my top “gotta flee the country” destination, followed by Sweden, Finland and Costa Rica depending on the situation.
But I digress.
Polls show the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau — son of iconic prime minister Pierre Trudeau — 5 points ahead of incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party. The nation’s current opposition (#2) party, the New Democrats led by Tom Mulclair, are trailing in a distant third.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is facing tremendous headwinds in his bid to keep power.
The Liberal Party dominated Canadian politics for much of the later 20th Century, in part due to the popularity and political acumen of Trudeau’s father. However in 2007, Canada swung rightward.
Conservative Party success was tied to the rise in strength of Canada’s traditionally conservative western provinces and their booming oil and gas industries. Harper brought an American-style political style to Canada’s genial electioneering tradition which also succeeded in winning over many of Ontario’s suburbs and industrial ridings.
Four years later in 2011, with the Liberal opposition floundering, the third-party New Democrats — on the strength of Quebecois support from the collapsing separatist Bloc Quebecois party — surged past the Liberals into second place while Harper’s conservatives won a majority government.
Things looked bad for the Liberals. Would the New Democrats take their place as the chief leftist party in Canada?
Enter Justin.
NDP leader Tom Mulcair was way out front last summer, but has fallen to a distant third in recent polls.
This year, things are different. Under Trudeau’s leadership Liberal voters seem to be coming home. The New Democrats, who seemed to be running away with the whole election months ago, have fallen far behind. Conservatives can’t seem to break a third of the vote in any recent polls.
Moreover, the results seem to be in spite of relentless Tory attacks against Trudeau over his age and “readiness” to be prime minister. (He’s 43). Read between the lines, and you can see that the real charge is that a prime minister named Justin is a line of demarcation crossed.
Harper is in the fight of his life to hold office and it doesn’t look good for him. Many have criticized the prime minster for extending the traditional campaign season to more than two months. Bear in mind that here in America our campaign season for a federal election lasts more than a year.
You can view tonight’s Canadian election returns at the CBC. Typically, C-SPAN carries coverage in the United States. It’ll be a hard night for me with “Fargo” on at the same time. It might not be as tough a choice as what Canadians face, but it is my struggle.
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